Analysis | 24 September 2026
The kwacha has found support while Uganda’s shilling and Ghana’s cedi face fresh demand for dollars. The difference says much about the pressures behind Africa’s exchange rates—and who feels them.
A currency can change direction in the space of a week. Zambia’s kwacha just did.
On 17 September, traders expected it to weaken as businesses bought dollars for imports. A week later, it had strengthened from about 19.94 to 19.78 to the dollar. Reuters pointed to a better harvest, progress on debt restructuring and strong copper prices as reasons for the change in outlook.
Across the continent, Uganda’s shilling and Ghana’s cedi were expected to come under further pressure. Kenya’s shilling and Nigeria’s naira looked steadier. Those forecasts cover the coming week; currency markets can shift again.
Why should anyone outside a trading room care? Because the dollars an importer needs today can shape the price a customer pays later—for fuel, medicine, machinery or goods brought in from abroad. A change in the exchange rate does not pass straight to the shop shelf, but it rarely stays confined to a market screen.
One Dollar, Different Stories
Zambia’s copper exports earn foreign currency, giving the kwacha a source of support when prices are high. A stronger harvest and progress on debt restructuring have also improved sentiment. Yet the picture is hardly settled. Reuters cited inflation risks from the end of a fuel-tax suspension and the possible onset of El Niño. This week’s gain gives Zambia breathing room, not protection from every future shock.
In Uganda, the immediate concern is the cost of energy. Manufacturers and fuel importers have been seeking more dollars as higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict raise their bills. On 24 September, the shilling was quoted at roughly 3,915–3,925 per dollar. One analyst said it could test 4,000. That is a prediction, not a level the currency has reached.
Ghana’s cedi faces a different squeeze. Businesses looking for foreign currency have been demanding more than the interbank market is supplying. The cedi was quoted at 11.57 per dollar, against 11.48 a week earlier. Gold brings dollars into Ghana, but export income does not always arrive at the moment an energy company or importer needs to settle an invoice.
Kenya and Nigeria offer a quieter picture for now. Traders described balanced flows between banks in Kenya. In Nigeria, central-bank intervention helped steady the naira after an interest-rate cut. Relative calm over several days, though, tells us little about what may happen if demand for dollars rises again.
South Africa’s rand has faced its own mix of pressures. Reuters reported earlier in September that a stronger dollar and higher oil prices weighed on the currency. The rand is also sensitive to changes in global investor confidence. Its movement on one day should not be read as a verdict on the whole month.
Where the Pressure Lands
The effects of a weaker currency depend on what a country imports, exports and owes. An importer may need more local currency for the same shipment of fuel or medicines. A business with a dollar loan may find its repayments harder to meet. Higher transport costs can make it more expensive to get food to market.
There can be gains as well. An exporter paid in dollars may earn more when that income is converted into local currency. But an exporter that relies on imported equipment, fertiliser or fuel will face higher costs too. Contracts, taxes and competition determine how much of any change is eventually passed on to customers.
Governments and central banks can try to ease the pressure. Selling dollars can help meet immediate demand, but uses reserves that may be needed later. Raising interest rates can support a currency while making credit more expensive for families and businesses. The choices are rarely simple.
Trade between African countries presents another opportunity. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, known as PAPSS, allows participating banks to process cross-border payments in local currencies. As its use grows, some businesses may be able to avoid unnecessary conversions through international currencies. It cannot remove exchange-rate risk or the need for dollars to buy goods from outside Africa.
For the longer term, the question is how many ways an economy has to earn foreign currency. Copper matters deeply to Zambia; gold matters to Ghana. Processing more commodities locally, selling competitive services and making regional trade easier could provide additional sources of income. None of that can be built in a week.
The next moves will depend on oil and commodity prices, global interest rates, central-bank decisions and conditions within each country. Zambia’s rebound is encouraging for its importers; the pressure on Uganda and Ghana is a reminder of how quickly the balance can shift.
Africa has no single currency story. What these currencies have in common is that their movements eventually leave the trading screen. They reach the importer’s invoice, the public budget and, sometimes, the price a family pays at the end of the day.
