Health officials fighting the world’s fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record are using anonymised mobile phone data to predict where the virus could spread next — the first time this approach has been used in an Ebola response, according to the WHO and the researchers working with it.
The Democratic Republic of Congo declared the outbreak on 15 May 2026 in Ituri province. By 21 September, the country had reported 7,773 confirmed cases and 3,759 deaths across seven provinces, caused by the Bundibugyo species of Ebola, for which there is no approved vaccine or treatment. The outbreak crossed 1,000 confirmed cases within 40 days — the 2018-2020 outbreak, the DRC’s deadliest before this one, took roughly 235 days to reach the same mark.
“Population movements have always been a factor in outbreaks, but they are particularly important in the current epidemic,” Olivier Le Polain, head of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO health emergencies programme, told Reuters. Traditional risk assessments assume a virus spreads mainly to areas bordering a hotspot. Mobility data can instead reveal places that are geographically distant but closely linked through travel — a distinction Le Polain said matters directly in Ituri, where mining and trade drive large population movements.
The analysis is produced by Flowminder, a Swedish non-profit, using records generated each time a mobile phone connects to a network antenna. Vodacom, the DRC’s largest operator, provides the data free of charge; Flowminder says it receives only aggregated, anonymised records with no way to identify individual subscribers. “We seek to provide estimates of how people move, which in turn is a predictor of how infectious people move,” Flowminder founder Linus Bengtsson said.
The method’s first real test came in June. Flowminder’s initial analysis tracked people who had spent time in Bunia, Mongbwalu and Rwampara — the three areas where the outbreak is believed to have started — between 3 and 23 April, then followed where they travelled next. By the end of that month, all ten destinations that received the largest flows of travellers from those origin points had reported confirmed Ebola cases.
The data’s most consequential call so far concerned Kisangani, a Congo River transport hub with no confirmed cases at the time. “The fact that Kisangani was at risk was not a huge surprise, even if it was not bordering the affected areas,” Le Polain said. “By mid-June, the data showed the risk was significant… We strengthened operations there before the first cases were detected.”
Subsequent analysis found 15 of the 50 areas most connected to Kisangani sit in Kinshasa province — prompting a WHO modelling exercise in late June that put the probability of a case reaching the capital by the end of September at 70%. Newer studies have also linked Kisangani to river settlements and to areas near the borders with the Central African Republic and South Sudan.
The system has real limits. It draws on a single operator — Vodacom holds nearly 35% of the DRC’s mobile market, with Airtel and Orange each around 30% and Africell just under 5% — so it misses most non-Vodacom subscribers entirely, and it captures nothing about movement across international borders. Flowminder and UN officials say they are working to add agreements with other operators, which would widen coverage and sharpen the picture of where the outbreak is likely to travel next. Afrikeye continues to track public health responses across Africa.
