South Africa’s main business lobby and its largest union federation agree that losing AGOA will cost jobs. They disagree on how many. Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) puts the number at a few thousand. COSATU’s parliamentary coordinator, Matthew Parks, told Moneyweb that estimates range from about 3,000 to nearly 10,000. The US plans to end South Africa’s duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act on 1 January 2027.
The losses are likely to be concentrated rather than economy-wide. Citrus growers in the Western and Northern Cape and fruit manufacturers in Atlantis are the most exposed. Our earlier report covers what Washington cited for removing South Africa and Rwanda. This article looks at who pays.
Where the jobs are at risk
Citrus is the clearest case. The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) says entire orchards were planted specifically for the US market and cannot easily be redirected, because other countries have different plant-health rules and consumer tastes. The association says it is too early to say how many jobs will go.
The duty cost is small per kilogram but the competitive effect is not. Without AGOA, exports face the standard US rate, generally 1.5 to 2.5 US cents per kilogram, according to the CGA. It adds that a 12.5% Section 301 tariff already applies to all citrus except oranges, which have been exempt since November 2025. Mandarins, lemons and grapefruit would therefore face both charges. Competitors such as Peru and Chile have trade agreements and shorter shipping times.
Manufacturing is less clear-cut. Parks expects the losses to fall mostly in the Western Cape, particularly among fruit manufacturers in Atlantis that benefited from AGOA. Carmakers are exposed too, but their problems predate this decision. Bloomberg reported that Mercedes-Benz’s East London exports slumped after the 2025 US tariffs and have not recovered. The Bureau for Economic Research says much of AGOA’s value has already been eroded by those tariffs.
Why the wider economy looks insulated
AGOA covered about 10% of South Africa’s exports to the US in 2025, about $1.7 billion, down from roughly 28% in 2024, according to Mail & Guardian’s reporting on the trade department’s figures. BUSA notes that farm and food exports to the US fell 22% in the year to August, while sales to other markets rose 9% to $15.7 billion, nearly ten times the US loss. Markets took the news calmly, with one analyst calling the disappointment largely anticipated.
BUSA still says jobs will be lost and warns that this is the last thing South Africa needs during an employment crisis. Its bigger worry is that relations between the two governments deteriorate further.
What Pretoria can still do
The notification gives South Africa 60 days to submit its case against removal, according to the Moneyweb report. Trade Minister Parks Tau says a resolution depends on both sides finding common ground. The government says it will support affected companies one by one and keep the measures it adopted after earlier US tariffs. It is also pointing to the African Continental Free Trade Area and talks with the EU, Asia, Canada, India and the Middle East. COSATU wants talks with Washington and a rescue package.
Analysis: The shift to other markets is already under way, which supports the view that the macro effect is small. The harder question is whether workers in single-purpose orchards and processing plants can move with it. Fruit grown to meet US standards and timing does not automatically fit new buyers, and AfCFTA tariff cuts do not replace phytosanitary approvals. The first test will come when cargoes shipped after 1 January arrive facing duty. More coverage is in Afrikeye’s Business section.
